Black Friday 2026 RAM and SSD prices: what the memory shortage means
Black Friday 2026 falls on November 27, but DRAM and NAND contract prices are still rising. Here is what TrendForce expects and how to judge a RAM or SSD deal.
Do not expect Black Friday 2026 to bring last year's RAM and SSD prices back. Black Friday falls on November 27, 2026 and Cyber Monday on November 30, but memory is in a shortage: as of October 2026, TrendForce projects conventional DRAM contract prices up 10-15% quarter over quarter in Q4 2026 and NAND Flash up 15-20%. Discounts will mostly be cuts from inflated list prices, so judge each one against the price history.
Why memory prices are high going into Black Friday
Cloud providers raised server DRAM orders for AI workloads from the second half of 2025, which, in TrendForce's words, limited allocations for PC and consumer applications and pushed overall DRAM prices up. NAND is tight too: TrendForce expected a 4-5% supply deficit in 2026, with enterprise SSD demand growing fast.
Retail shelves feel this with a delay. Contract prices, which module makers and PC brands pay, move first. A store promotion is a decision about margin on stock that is already priced in. For the full background, see our explainers on the 2026 DRAM shortage and rising SSD and hard drive prices.
What TrendForce expects for Q4 2026
The figures below come from TrendForce's September 30, 2026 outlook and were current as of October 2026. TrendForce can revise them, so check for a newer release.
- PC DRAM: prices are expected to keep rising.
- Consumer DRAM: still rising, but at a slower pace.
- Client SSD: increases are described as restrained, because buyers hold ample inventory and suppliers are taking a more flexible pricing stance.
- Enterprise SSD: the only category where the increase is expected to accelerate. It matters for consumers mainly because it competes for the same NAND.
Read this carefully: these are contract-price trends, not shelf prices. The release gives no percentages for client SSDs or consumer RAM kits, and it is not a forecast of what any retailer will charge on November 27. TrendForce's wording suggests less upward pressure on client SSDs than on RAM, but it does not promise a discount on either.
How to judge a Black Friday memory deal
- Check the price history. Use a price tracker such as the price-history graph on PCPartPicker or a retailer-tracking tool. A "40% off" label means little if the list price was raised in October.
- Compare with spring 2026. Prices before the steepest increases are a better baseline than the crossed-out number on the product page.
- Compare the same specification. For RAM, match capacity, DDR generation, speed and CAS latency. For SSDs, match capacity, interface (PCIe 5.0 or 4.0), and whether the drive has a DRAM cache.
- Check who sells it. On marketplaces, "sold by" and "shipped by" can be different companies. Prefer the manufacturer or the retailer itself.
- Read the return and warranty terms before paying. Holiday return windows differ by store. Memory and SSDs normally come with a manufacturer warranty, but check the length for the exact model and keep the receipt.
What to prioritise if you must buy
If a build or upgrade cannot wait, decide on capacity first. For many gaming and work PCs 32GB is a practical choice, but buying more than you need at today's prices adds cost without benefit. Platform matters too: if your motherboard takes DDR5, there is no cheaper DDR5 substitute, and compatibility checks with your CPU and board come before the discount. For GPUs, no tracker data is verified here, so treat card prices separately from this memory analysis, and check the 12V-2x6 connector guide if you are planning a high-power card.
Waiting is also a choice, but we do not forecast retail prices, and a single sale event should not settle the decision.
For more coverage of the supply side, follow our Chips and Industry sections.
Frequently asked questions
When is Black Friday 2026?
Black Friday is Friday, November 27, 2026, the day after US Thanksgiving. Cyber Monday is November 30, 2026. Many retailers start promotions days earlier.
Is now a good time to buy RAM?
As of October 2026, TrendForce expects PC and consumer DRAM contract prices to keep rising in Q4 2026. If you need RAM now, buy at a price that beats the tracked price history, and do not rely on a sale label alone.
Will SSD prices drop on Black Friday?
Possibly for individual models. TrendForce describes client SSD increases as restrained for Q4 2026, which suggests less price pressure than for RAM, but no discount is guaranteed.
Should I buy DDR5 or DDR4?
Buy the type your motherboard and CPU support. Switching platforms just for memory prices usually costs more than it saves.